Shippers Face Ongoing Capacity Crunch as Trucking Rates Stay Near Historic Highs

Tight truck capacity continues to reshape the freight market, creating new challenges for shippers looking to secure reliable transportation. According to ACT Research's June For-Hire Trucking Index, freight rates remain close to historic highs while available capacity continues to tighten. At the same time, Class 8 truck sales are still failing to keep pace with replacement demand, and new FMCSA regulations are further limiting the available driver workforce. Together, these factors suggest that the industry's supply constraints are likely to persist well into the coming months.

ACT Research's monthly survey measures carrier sentiment using a diffusion index, where readings above 50 indicate expansion and values below 50 signal contraction. A reading of exactly 50 represents no month-over-month change.

Freight Rates Continue to Favor Carriers

Although the Freight Rate Index declined by 9.5 points from May's record-setting level, it still registered a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, one of the strongest readings recorded during the survey's nearly 17-year history. The slight decline does little to change the broader market picture, as carrier pricing power remains exceptionally strong.

Industry analysts note that the balance between supply and demand has shifted significantly in favor of trucking companies throughout the year. With freight demand remaining resilient and truck availability constrained, shipping costs are expected to remain elevated as carriers continue commanding stronger pricing across both spot and contract markets.

Limited Truck Capacity Continues to Pressure the Market

The Capacity Index increased modestly to 55.0 in June, marking its highest level in more than 43 months. While this may appear to signal improving conditions, the increase is largely being driven by larger, financially stronger fleets that are selectively expanding operations rather than a widespread recovery in industry capacity.

A key issue remains the slow pace of Class 8 tractor purchases. Industrywide sales continue to trail replacement demand, preventing meaningful fleet growth. Many carriers are delaying equipment investments despite improving market conditions, leaving the industry with an aging fleet and limited ability to add trucks quickly.

Looking ahead, ACT Research expects capacity growth to accelerate during the second half of the year as stronger freight rates improve carrier profitability. In addition, fleets are expected to increase equipment purchases ahead of the upcoming EPA 2027 emissions standards, encouraging many operators to replace older tractors before new regulatory requirements take effect.

Driver Availability Remains One of the Industry's Biggest Challenges

While the Driver Availability Index improved slightly from 32.6 in May to 34.1 in June, it remains well below healthy levels, highlighting the ongoing shortage of qualified commercial drivers.

The labor market has been significantly impacted by several recent FMCSA enforcement initiatives, including stricter non-domiciled CDL regulations, increased oversight of ELD compliance, tougher enforcement against registration fraud, and the closure of some driver training schools. These regulatory changes pushed driver availability to a five-year low earlier this year, reducing the pool of eligible commercial drivers entering the workforce.

Although recent improvements suggest the market may be stabilizing, industry experts believe driver shortages will continue limiting capacity, placing additional upward pressure on freight rates throughout the remainder of the year.

Fleet Investment Decisions Remain Cautious

Despite stronger pricing conditions, carriers continue to take a conservative approach toward purchasing new equipment. Approximately 47% of fleets reported plans to invest in trucks over the next three months, remaining below the long-term June average of 53%.

Several economic factors continue to influence buying decisions. Many carriers entered 2026 with profit margins that had been severely compressed following several difficult years in the freight market, leaving limited capital for equipment purchases. Additionally, because contract freight rates typically respond several months after improvements in the spot market, many larger fleets have yet to experience the full financial benefits of rising transportation prices.

As contract rates continue catching up with spot market gains, carriers are expected to regain confidence and gradually increase capital spending.

What This Means for the Trucking Industry

The latest market indicators point to a freight environment where capacity remains constrained, qualified drivers remain scarce, and freight rates continue favoring carriers. While gradual fleet expansion is expected during the second half of the year, structural challenges, including aging equipment, cautious investment, and tighter regulatory oversight are likely to prevent a rapid increase in available trucking capacity.

For shippers, this means planning freight movements further in advance, strengthening relationships with reliable transportation partners, and preparing for continued pricing pressure. For carriers, the current market offers improved revenue opportunities, particularly for fleets that can maintain dependable capacity and invest strategically as market conditions continue to strengthen.

As the industry moves toward EPA 2027 emissions regulations and adapts to evolving FMCSA compliance requirements, both carriers and shippers should expect capacity management to remain one of the defining issues shaping the North American freight market over the coming year.